Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a two-percentage-point lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff ahead of October’s presidential election, according to a Datafolha poll released Thursday.

In the simulated second-round vote, Lula received 47% support compared with 45% for Bolsonaro. A previous Datafolha poll conducted the week before had Lula ahead by 46% to 44%.

The latest result falls within the poll’s margin of error of two percentage points, meaning the difference between the candidates is considered a statistical tie.

In a simulated first-round vote, Lula received 40% support, while Bolsonaro had 36%. Augusto Cury was at 5%, followed by Ronaldo Caiado with 4% and Renan Santos with 3%.

The previous Datafolha survey had Lula at 39% and Bolsonaro at 36% in the first round.

Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is Lula’s main challenger in the election. Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as Brazil’s president.

If no candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the two candidates with the highest vote totals will advance to a runoff.

Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September 22 and 23.

Other recent polls have also shown a close contest. A Quaest poll released earlier this week put Bolsonaro one percentage point ahead of Lula in a potential runoff, while a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Lula one point ahead. Both differences were within the respective margins of error.

SOURCE: Reuters, September 25, 2026.